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Carolina Panthers

1-3 HC Dave Canales
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New England Patriots

2-2 HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2025-09-28 · 13:00 ET Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

CAR
51.8%
NE
48.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: -0.023 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • NE defense: +0.098 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • CAR offense: +0.017 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23 16–30
–
NE 22 15–29
Projected margin: CAR by 1 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

CAR

D.J. Wonnum LB Out Hip
Patrick Jones II LB Out Hamstring
Xavier Legette WR Out Hamstring
Ja'Tavion Sanders TE Out Ankle
Tershawn Wharton DT Questionable Hamstring
Chuba Hubbard RB Questionable Calf
Tetairoa McMillan WR Questionable Calf

NE

Jared Wilson G Out Ankle
Mike Onwenu G Questionable Shoulder
K'Lavon Chaisson LB Questionable Knee
Christian Gonzalez CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 13
–
NE 42

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:56 TD CAR (10:56) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 0
  • Q1 05:55 TD NE (5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play. CAR 6 – NE 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD NE (15:00) 10-D.Maye scrambles left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 13
  • Q2 05:53 TD NE (5:53) (Shotgun) 32-T.Henderson right guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 20
  • Q2 02:00 TD NE (2:00) 59-V.Lowe reported in as eligible. 4-A.Gibson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ** Injury Update: CAR-92-C.Jackson has returned to the game. CAR 6 – NE 27
  • Q3 10:27 TD NE (10:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short left to 85-H.Henry for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 34
  • Q4 14:16 TD NE (14:16) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 13-M.Hollins for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NE 41
  • Q4 02:00 TD CAR (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 12 – NE 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 23 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 49%

    (5:55) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to NE 13, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE-22-C.Woods was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CAR 4th & 11 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 54%

    (3:05) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback. ** Injury Update: NE-22-C.Woods has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 16 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (9:59) 10-R.Fitzgerald 55 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (4:23) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to NE 25, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 14 for 61 yards (6-S.Martin).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:36) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NE 2, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (:12) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to CAR 34, Center-47-J.Ashby. 13-H.Renfrow to CAR 47 for 13 yards (41-B.Schooler; 42-D.Harris).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 69%

    (6:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:32) 17-B.Baringer punts 56 yards to CAR 3, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne to CAR 1 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CAR 4th & 6 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (2:34) 6-S.Martin punts 55 yards to NE 40, Center-44-J.Jansen. 25-M.Jones to CAR 41 for 19 yards (48-T.Incoom; 53-C.Cherelus).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 3 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 71%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at CAR 4 for 30 yards (2-M.Jackson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 54%

    (10:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle [90-C.Barmore]. Penalty on CAR-79-I.Ekwonu, Offensive Holding, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.30 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 29%

    (8:47) 17-B.Baringer punts 42 yards to CAR 9, Center-47-J.Ashby, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CAR 4th & 2 at the 2 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

    See the full breakdown →