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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Carolina Panthers
4th & 5 at the 35
Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 35
What Actually Happened
(6:33) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.McMillan.
The Three Options
GO
+0.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.95 EP
- 56% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
KICK
+0.55 EP
- 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 31% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT
+0.16 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
