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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 34

New England Patriots 35 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(:19) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass deep right to 8-S.Diggs pushed ob at CAR 4 for 30 yards (2-M.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.77 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.52 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.24 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model