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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 41

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 42

What Actually Happened

(10:22) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short middle [90-C.Barmore]. Penalty on CAR-79-I.Ekwonu, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 41, worth -1.87 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model