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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 2

Carolina Panthers 6 – New England Patriots 42

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 84-M.Evans for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.84 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 2, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model