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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 63

New England Patriots 0 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to CAR 15, Center-47-J.Ashby. 23-T.Etienne ran ob at CAR 23 for 8 yards (21-J.Hawkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model