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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 15 at the 56

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 8-R.Rehkow punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.95 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model