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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
Monday 2025-09-29 · 20:15 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

CIN
32.1%
DEN
67.9%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Bo Nix (DEN): +0.152 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DEN offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.056 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CIN offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 19
–
DEN 24
Projected margin: DEN by 5 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

CIN

Noah Fant TE Out Concussion
Shemar Stewart DE Out Ankle

DEN

Marvin Mims Jr. WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 3
–
DEN 28

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:11 FG CIN (9:11) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow. CIN 3 – DEN 0
  • Q1 00:22 TD DEN (:22) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix scrambles right tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – DEN 6
  • Q2 08:52 TD DEN (8:52) 19-M.Mims left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – DEN 13
  • Q2 00:13 TD DEN (:13) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass deep right to 14-C.Sutton for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – DEN 20
  • Q4 05:02 TD DEN (5:02) (Shotgun) 10-B.Nix pass short left to 12-R.Harvey for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – DEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (9:11) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. PENALTY on CIN-25-T.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 24 yards to DEN 36, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:01) 8-R.Rehkow punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-W.Wagner, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (8:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 69 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 30 for 13 yards (50-S.Heyward; 37-P.Jules).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (2:04) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight at CIN -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 20 for 4 yards (37-P.Jules).

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:44) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 42 yards to CIN 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (45-N.Adkins; 50-G.Wallow).

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (11:08) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Fair Catch Interference, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 15.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:28) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 17 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 25%

    (3:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to CIN 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-M.Tinsley.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 16 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:21) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 24 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (3:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 39 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.