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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 86

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 69 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 30 for 13 yards (50-S.Heyward; 37-P.Jules).

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.16 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 86, worth -5.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model