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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 2

Denver Broncos 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 10-B.Nix pass short right intended for 11-T.Franklin INTERCEPTED by 44-D.Knight at CIN -5. Touchback. The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO +4.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 2, worth -0.03 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model