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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 51

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 44 yards to DEN 7, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.61 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.77 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model