Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 56

Denver Broncos 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

(12:54) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 40 yards to CIN 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 82-M.Tinsley.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.68 EP
64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model