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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 8

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(9:11) 2-E.McPherson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-W.Wagner, Holder-8-R.Rehkow.

The Three Options

GO +2.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 8, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.62 EP