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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 16 at the 78

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 8-R.Rehkow punts 61 yards to DEN 17, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 24 for 7 yards (50-S.Heyward).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.00 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 78, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model