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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 58

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 39 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.69 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 58, worth -2.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model