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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 8-R.Rehkow punts 24 yards to DEN 36, Center-46-W.Wagner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 19, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model