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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 32-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-13-V.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.44 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model