Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.279 vs Spencer Rattler (NO) -0.216 EPA/dropback
- BUF offense: +0.196 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- NO offense: -0.114 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- NO defense: +0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- BUF on 3 more days rest than NO
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
NO
BUF
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:58 TD BUF (10:58) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 10-K.Shakir for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – BUF 6
- Q1 06:54 TD NO (6:54) (Shotgun) 5-K.Miller left guard for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – BUF 7
- Q1 02:33 TD BUF (2:33) 4-J.Cook left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – BUF 13
- Q2 05:36 FG NO (5:36) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 10 – BUF 14
- Q3 06:48 TD BUF (6:48) 17-J.Allen scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – BUF 20
- Q3 00:17 TD NO (:17) 2-S.Rattler pass short middle to 12-C.Olave for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – BUF 21
- Q4 08:56 FG NO (8:56) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger. NO 19 – BUF 21
- Q4 07:12 TD BUF (7:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep right to 86-D.Kincaid for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 19 – BUF 27
- Q4 02:12 FG BUF (2:12) 15-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: BUF-16-C.Johnston has returned to the game. NO 19 – BUF 31
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q2 NO 4th & 8 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35% p(FG) 38%
(11:24) 32-K.Kroeger punts 44 yards to BUF 3, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-13-V.Jones.
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Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(8:51) 16-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to NO 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on BUF-69-R.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 41.
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Q2 NO 4th & 9 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 67%
(5:36) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q3 NO 4th & 3 at the 49Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 33%
(12:59) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.
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Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 49Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74% p(FG) 33%
(12:56) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).
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Q4 NO 4th & 13 at the 17Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%
(8:56) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.
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Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 49%
(5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to BUF 41 for 2 yards (27-T.White).
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Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 17 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54% p(FG) 94%
(2:12) 15-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: BUF-16-C.Johnston has returned to the game.
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Q4 NO 4th & 6 at the 61 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(1:51) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 31 for -8 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-78-E.McCoy at NO 34.