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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 81

Buffalo Bills 14 – New Orleans Saints 7

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 16-C.Johnston punts 40 yards to NO 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed. PENALTY on BUF-69-R.Ferguson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 41.

The Three Options

GO -1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.41 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 81, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 38, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model