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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 49

New Orleans Saints 10 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 32-K.Kroeger punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-49-Z.Wood, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.07 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP