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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 17

New Orleans Saints 16 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 19-B.Grupe 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.86 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 17, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model