4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 17

Buffalo Bills 28 – New Orleans Saints 19

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 15-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-16-C.Johnston. ** Injury Update: BUF-16-C.Johnston has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.59 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 17, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model