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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 19 – Buffalo Bills 31

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler sacked at NO 31 for -8 yards (97-J.Bosa). FUMBLES (97-J.Bosa), touched at NO 33, recovered by NO-78-E.McCoy at NO 34.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.02 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 61, worth -1.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.70 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 20, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model