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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 4

Miami Dolphins 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 4, worth +0.21 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model