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New York Jets

HC Aaron Glenn
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

HC Mike McDaniel
Monday 2025-09-29 · 19:15 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US 🌧 Rain Spread 2.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYJ
41.5%
MIA
58.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to MIA: Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) +0.194 vs Justin Fields (NYJ) -0.017 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Justin Fields in place of Tyrod Taylor)
  • MIA defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.048 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • MIA on 3 more days rest than NYJ
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 22
–
MIA 23
Projected margin: MIA by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

NYJ

Jermaine Johnson II DE Out Ankle
Jarvis Brownlee Jr. CB Out Ankle
Kene Nwangwu RB Doubtful Hamstring

MIA

Storm Duck CB Out Ankle
Jason Marshall Jr. CB Out Hamstring
Ethan Bonner CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 21
–
MIA 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:55 FG MIA (10:55) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 0 – MIA 3
  • Q2 09:26 TD MIA (9:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – MIA 9
  • Q2 00:02 FG NYJ (:02) 6-N.Folk 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 3 – MIA 10
  • Q3 11:38 TD MIA (11:38) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 3 – MIA 16
  • Q3 09:36 TD NYJ (9:36) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 9 – MIA 17
  • Q3 05:26 TD MIA (5:26) (Shotgun) 28-D.Achane right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – MIA 23
  • Q4 13:14 FG NYJ (13:14) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 13 – MIA 24
  • Q4 03:36 FG MIA (3:36) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey. NYJ 13 – MIA 27
  • Q4 01:56 TD NYJ (1:56) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 19 – MIA 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 77%

    (10:55) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (9:26) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 83-D.Waller for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%

    (4:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at MIA 47 for -11 yards (25-T.Dodson). FUMBLES (25-T.Dodson) [25-T.Dodson], RECOVERED by MIA-15-Ja.Phillips at NYJ 47. 15-Ja.Phillips to NYJ 43 for 4 yards (70-A.Membou).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 40%

    (2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to NYJ 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 40%

    (9:36) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 21%

    (2:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 83
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 58%

    (1:37) 16-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 18 yards (11-D.Trader).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:32) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to NYJ 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (7:13) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-82-A.Smith.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (3:36) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 10 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 35%

    (:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 1, impetus ends at NYJ 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-53-C.Goode.