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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 36

New York Jets 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(4:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields sacked at MIA 47 for -11 yards (25-T.Dodson). FUMBLES (25-T.Dodson) [25-T.Dodson], RECOVERED by MIA-15-Ja.Phillips at NYJ 47. 15-Ja.Phillips to NYJ 43 for 4 yards (70-A.Membou).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.69 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 36, worth -1.68 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model