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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 43

Miami Dolphins 10 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 16-J.Bailey punts 27 yards to NYJ 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.76 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.00 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP