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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 29

Miami Dolphins 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 47-R.Patterson 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.58 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -0.90 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP