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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 51

New York Jets 10 – Miami Dolphins 24

What Actually Happened

(2:43) 14-A.McNamara punts 41 yards to MIA 10, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 6-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 51, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.92 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model