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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 83

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 16-J.Bailey punts 64 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-I.Williams to NYJ 37 for 18 yards (11-D.Trader).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.85 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 41, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP