4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 60

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 16-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to NYJ 3, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.33 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP