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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 45

Miami Dolphins 27 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(:13) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NYJ 1, impetus ends at NYJ 1, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by MIA-53-C.Goode.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +0.82 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.64 EP