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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to TB 16 for 5 yards (83-K.Granson; 54-J.Trotter).

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.84 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP