Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- TB offense: +0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- QB edge to TB: Baker Mayfield (TB) +0.234 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.151 EPA/dropback
- TB defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 4
PHI
TB
Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:59 TD PHI (12:59) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 36-C.Latu, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by PHI-21-S.Brown at TB 35. 21-S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – TB 0
- Q1 07:12 TD PHI (7:12) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 88-D.Goedert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – TB 0
- Q1 00:01 FG TB (:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 14 – TB 3
- Q2 06:14 TD PHI (6:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 88-D.Goedert for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [54-L.David]. PHI 20 – TB 3
- Q2 01:01 FG PHI (1:01) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann. PHI 24 – TB 3
- Q2 00:04 FG TB (:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 24 – TB 6
- Q3 10:04 TD TB (10:04) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 2-E.Egbuka for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 24 – TB 12
- Q3 03:57 TD PHI (3:57) 26-S.Barkley left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – TB 13
- Q3 02:24 TD TB (2:24) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 7-B.Irving for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 31 – TB 19
- Q4 12:20 FG TB (12:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon. PHI 31 – TB 23
- Q4 00:06 SAF TB (:06) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann right end tackled in End Zone for -34 yards, SAFETY (26-K.Merriweather). PHI 31 – TB 25
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 52Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%
(12:59) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 36-C.Latu, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by PHI-21-S.Brown at TB 35. 21-S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q1 TB 4th & 2 at the 67Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 64%
(11:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to PHI 27, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.
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Q1 TB 4th & 18 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 89%
(:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 63Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 56%
(12:49) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 11, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to TB 16 for 5 yards (83-K.Granson; 54-J.Trotter).
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Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 61Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 18 yards to PHI 43, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-34-P.Nickerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 43.
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Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(5:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PHI 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 25 for 3 yards (98-A.Nelson).
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Q2 PHI 4th & 11 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 91%
(1:01) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.
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Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 47Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 39%
(:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:48) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to TB 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 40 for 46 yards (83-K.Granson).
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Q3 TB 4th & 3 at the 33Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 74%
(11:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard (7-K.Ringo).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 59Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EPp(convert) 55%
(10:11) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to TB 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 17 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(8:21) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to TB 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson ran ob at TB 17 for 13 yards (36-C.Latu; 21-S.Brown).
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Q4 TB 4th & 12 at the 40Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 57%
(12:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 77Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(12:00) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to TB 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to PHI 47 for 27 yards (22-M.McWilliams).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 72Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EPp(convert) 64%
(6:18) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to TB 22 for 2 yards (21-S.Brown).
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Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 69 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 74%
(4:05) 1-R.White left end to TB 33 for 2 yards (33-C.DeJean).
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Q4 TB 4th & 9 at the 37 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 65%
(1:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson). FUMBLES (34-P.Nickerson), ball out of bounds at PHI 32. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson).
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Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 66 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EPp(convert) 35%
(:06) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann right end tackled in End Zone for -34 yards, SAFETY (26-K.Merriweather).