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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 9-R.Dixon punt is BLOCKED by 36-C.Latu, Center-86-E.Deckers, RECOVERED by PHI-21-S.Brown at TB 35. 21-S.Brown for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.43 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP