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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 21

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 4-J.Elliott 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.80 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model