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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 47

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-C.McLaughlin 65 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.45 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.28 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 47, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.95 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model