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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 33

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(11:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard (7-K.Ringo).

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.04 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
  • 74% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model