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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 67

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(11:28) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to PHI 27, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 2-J.Dotson.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.05 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 67, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 25, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP