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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(12:00) 10-B.Mann punts 51 yards to TB 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to PHI 47 for 27 yards (22-M.McWilliams).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.43 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model