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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 72

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 10-B.Mann punts 52 yards to TB 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson to TB 22 for 2 yards (21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.32 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP