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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(4:05) 1-R.White left end to TB 33 for 2 yards (33-C.DeJean).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.07 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model