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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 37

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(1:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson). FUMBLES (34-P.Nickerson), ball out of bounds at PHI 32. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to PHI 35 for 2 yards (34-P.Nickerson).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.09 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP