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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 31 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Punt formation) 10-B.Mann right end tackled in End Zone for -34 yards, SAFETY (26-K.Merriweather).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +0.10 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -1.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP