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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 75

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Horton to SEA 26 for 8 yards (44-O.Pappoe; 36-K.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO -1.75 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model