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Seattle Seahawks

HC Mike Macdonald
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Jonathan Gannon
Thursday 2025-09-25 · 20:15 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -1.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

SEA
39.9%
ARI
60.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: +0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ARI defense: +0.042 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • SEA defense: -0.034 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 23
–
ARI 25
Projected margin: ARI by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

SEA

Josh Jones T Out Ankle
Nick Emmanwori S Doubtful Ankle
Boye Mafe LB Questionable Toe
Anthony Bradford G Questionable Back
Zach Charbonnet RB Questionable Foot

ARI

Zay Jones WR Out Concussion
Will Johnson CB Doubtful Groin
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Knee
Will Hernandez G Questionable Knee
Evan Brown G Questionable Ankle
Akeem Davis-Gaither LB Questionable Elbow
Darren Hall CB Questionable Ankle
Paris Johnson Jr. T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2025 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 23
–
ARI 20

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:41 FG ARI (4:41) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SEA 0 – ARI 3
  • Q1 01:38 TD SEA (1:38) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 88-A.Barner for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 01:07 TD SEA (1:07) 26-Z.Charbonnet left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 13 – ARI 3
  • Q3 09:01 FG SEA (9:01) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – ARI 3
  • Q3 01:44 FG ARI (1:44) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. SEA 17 – ARI 6
  • Q4 09:37 FG SEA (9:37) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – ARI 6
  • Q4 05:55 TD ARI (5:55) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 18-M.Harrison for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – ARI 12
  • Q4 00:33 TD ARI (:33) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 31-E.Demercado for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 20 – ARI 19
  • Q4 00:04 FG SEA (:04) 5-J.Myers 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 23 – ARI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:25) 12-B.Gillikin punts 42 yards to SEA 14, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 42%

    (9:07) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle to ARI 48 for no gain (2-Ma.Wilson, 27-A.Davis-Gaither).

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 96%

    (4:41) 38-C.Ryland 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 11 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (15:00) 12-B.Gillikin punts 57 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Horton to SEA 26 for 8 yards (44-O.Pappoe; 36-K.Crawford).

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (12:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to ARI 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 27 for 15 yards (28-N.Pritchett).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP
    p(convert) 74%

    (3:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Horton to SEA 10 for 2 yards (36-K.Crawford; 50-C.Simon).

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 87%

    (9:01) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 30%

    (6:33) 12-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to ARI 38, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 17 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 64%

    (1:44) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (9:37) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 7 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 73%

    (3:21) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ** Injury Update: ARI-93-C.Campbell has returned to the game.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 4 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 35%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SEA 46 for 5 yards (29-J.Jobe).