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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 71

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(3:58) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SEA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 15-T.Horton to SEA 10 for 2 yards (36-K.Crawford; 50-C.Simon).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -3.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.23 EP