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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 36, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP