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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 17 at the 39

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 38-C.Ryland 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -1.91 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model