4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 13

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 5-J.Myers 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.51 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model